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Mortgage Insurer PMI Predicts Home Prices will be Lower in March 2013 Than They Were in March 2011

Home prices have gotten a little bit of a boost in recent months thanks to a seasonal uptick in market activity. Most analysts, however, expect further declines to characterize the later part of the year and possibly extend into next year, largely because of the huge supply of foreclosures on the market.

Mortgage insurer PMI says there’s a 50 to 60 percent chance that home prices at the national level will be lower in March 2013 than they were in March 2011.

Using calculations based on economic conditions such as unemployment rates and local housing market indicators like foreclosure rates, PMI has put a figure on the likelihood that home prices will continue to depreciate over the next two years.

The score on PMI’s Housing Appreciation Risk Index (HARI) translates to the probability that house prices will head lower – the higher the score, the greater the risk of price decreases.

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