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CoreLogic - Home Prices in February Up 6.7% Year-Over-Year

  • All 50 States Gained Value YOY in February, Increasing the Most in Washington, with 12.5 Percent
  • In February, 48 Percent of the Top 50 Markets Were Considered Overvalued
  • Home Prices Projected to Increase by 4.7 Percent by February 2019

Home prices increased nationally year over year by 6.7 percent — from February 2017 to February 2018 — and on a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1 percent in February 2018 — compared with January 2018 — according to the CoreLogic HPI.

Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that the national home-price index is projected to continue to increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from February 2018 to February 2019, with California leading the climb at a forecasted 10.3 percent year-over-year change. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices that is calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“A number of western states have had hot housing markets,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Washington all had home prices up more than 11 percent over the last year. With the recent rise in mortgage rates, affordability has fallen sharply in these states. We expect home-price growth to slow over the next 12 months, dropping to 5 to 6 percent in Idaho, Utah and Washington, and slowing to 9.6 percent in Nevada.”

According to CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI) data, an analysis of housing values in the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 34 percent of metropolitan areas have an overvalued housing market as of February 2018. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued, by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals (such as disposable income). Additionally, as of February 2018, 30 percent of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued and 36 percent were at value. When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 48 percent were overvalued, 18 percent were undervalued and 34 percent were at value. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10 percent higher than the long-term, sustainable level, while an undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10 percent below the sustainable level.

“Family income is rising more slowly than home prices and mortgage rates, meaning that the mortgage payment takes a bigger bite out of income for new homebuyers,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “CoreLogic’s Market Conditions Indicator has identified nearly one-half of the 50 largest metropolitan areas as overvalued. Often buyers are lulled into thinking these high-priced markets will continue, but we find that overvalued markets will tend to have a slowdown in price growth.”

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